唐〓莉,张永波,祝雪萍,王权威.汾河流域降水量时空分布变化对汛期的影响[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(9):10-9
汾河流域降水量时空分布变化对汛期的影响
Influence of Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Precipitation in Fenhe River Basin on Flood Season
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  汾河流域  降水量  时空分布  突变点  扫描式滑动t  PCA Fisher
英文关键词:Fenhe river basin  precipitation  spatio temporal distribution  sudden change point  scanning sliding t  PCA Fisher
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51509176);山西省自然科学基金项目(201601D021086)
作者单位
唐〓莉,张永波,祝雪萍,王权威 太原理工大学 水利科学与工程学院 山西 太原 030024 
摘要点击次数: 166
全文下载次数: 
中文摘要:
      合理地确定汛期是进行水库洪水调度的前提,对于流域、水库防洪及水资源的合理应用等具有重大意义。基于1957~2014年汾河流域13个气象站降水量资料,采用Mann Kendall检验方法、Cramer法 、Yamamoto法及Pettitt法检测突变点,以此突变点为分界线,采用扫描式滑动t值法研究突变年前后汛期的起止时间,采用PCA Fisher最优分割法研究气候突变年前后汾河流域汛期分期的变化。结果表明,汾河流域降水量突变发生在1982年,汾河流域降水量突变年后多年平均降水量明显减少。在汾河流域降水量减少的同时,流域内降水量的年际分配越不均匀,突变年后各年内汛期起止时间波动幅度上升,从而导致流域内汛期提前并延长。
英文摘要:
      The determination of reasonable flood season is the precondition of reservoir flood dispatching, and it is of great significance for reasonable application of river basin, reservoir flood control and water resources. Taking Fenhe river watershed as the research object, based on the precipitation data of 13 meteorologic stations during 1957 2014 years, the Mann Kendall inspection method, Cramer, Yamamoto and Pettitt methods were used to detect sudden change points. The scanning sliding t test was adopted to study the starting and ending time of flood season before and after the sudden change points. And then the PCA Fisher optimal division method was used to study the variation of flood season stage of Fenhe river basin before and after climate sudden change. The results show that the sudden change of Fenhe river basin precipitation occurred in 1982, annual average rainfall in Fenhe river basin after sudden change year decreased significantly. In Fenhe river basin, when the precipitation reduced, the annual distribution of precipitation was uneven. The rise of start end time volatility of flood 〖JP2〗season in each year after sudden change year results in prolonging and ahead of flood season.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器