马涵玉.高昌区地表水资源承载力系统动力学模型及其应用[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(6):29-32
高昌区地表水资源承载力系统动力学模型及其应用
System Dynamics Model of Surface Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Gaochang Region and Its Application
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  高昌区  系统动力学模型  地表水资源承载力  情景模拟
英文关键词:Gaochang area  SD model  surface water resources carrying capacity  scenario simulation
基金项目:
作者单位
马涵玉 新疆水利水电勘测设计研究院 新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000 
摘要点击次数: 93
全文下载次数: 
中文摘要:
      为分析吐鲁番市高昌区地表水资源承载力,基于高昌区地表水资源现状,结合已有水资源承载力评价指标体系,运用系统动力学方法,构建了囊括水资源-经济-人口-生态四个子系统的高昌区地表水资源承载力系统动力学模型,根据该区社会经济的实际发展情况,以2015年为基准年,模拟预测了2015~2030年高昌区的地表水资源承载力情况。模拟预测结果表明,根据该区当前的农业节水和退地减水政策,高昌区的地表水资源承载力逐年呈现增强趋势,地表水资源承载力限制系数由2015年的2.16降至2030年的1.44;地表水需水量呈现出逐年递减趋势,地表水供水量由2015年的28 023×104m3降低至2030年的18 756.3×104m3,减少了43%。研究成果可为高昌区地表水资源可持续利用提供技术依据。
英文摘要:
      To analyze the surface water carrying capacity in Gaochang area of Turpan City, based on the present situation of surface water resources in Gaochang area, combined with the existing evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity, the system dynamics method was used to establish the surface water resources carrying capacity model based systems dynamics in Gaochang area including four subsystems with water resources economy population ecology. According to the actual situation of the development of social economy, taking the 2015 as the reference year, the surface water resource carrying capacity in 2015 2030 was simulated and predicted. According to the current agricultural water saving and back cultivated land policy, the results show that the surface water resources carrying capacity appeared increasing trend year by year, and the limit coefficient of surface water resources carrying capacity can be reduced to 1.44 in 2030 from 2.16 in 2015; The surface water demand showed decreasing trend year by year, and the water supply of surface water can be reduced to 187 million in 2030 from 280 million in 2015, it reduced 43%. The research results can provide technical basis for the sustainable utilization of surface water resources in Gaochang area.
查看全文  查看/发表评论  下载PDF阅读器