刘〓闯a,宋〓玲a,b,蒙锦涛a.引调水PPP项目风险分担的区间模糊Shapley值方法[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(6):162-166
引调水PPP项目风险分担的区间模糊Shapley值方法
Interval valued Fuzzy Shapley Value for Risk Sharing of PPP Model for Water Diversion Project
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  风险分担  区间模糊Shapley值  AHP GEM  引调水工程  PPP模式
英文关键词:risk sharing  interval valued fuzzy Shapley value  AHP GEM  water diversion project  PPP mode
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51509144);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目(2014KSD07)
作者单位
刘〓闯a,宋〓玲a,b,蒙锦涛a 三峡大学 a. 水利与环境学院 b. 水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室 湖北 宜昌 443002 
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中文摘要:
      为协调引调水PPP项目风险分担,针对引调水工程特性,系统分析影响风险分担因子,并运用层次分析法和群组决策特征根法(AHP GEM)对其进行赋权;然后在构造风险损失模糊函数的基础上,运用区间模糊Shapley值法对引调水PPP项目进行初始风险分担;最后结合风险分担影响因子对初始风险分担值进行修正,提出引调水PPP项目风险分担算法。案例分析表明,修正后的风险分担方案有效克服了人的有限预估风险水平及风险损失的波动性,且权衡了各参与方实际风险承担能力,更与实际相符。
英文摘要:
      Taking the characteristics of water transfer project into consideration, the impact factor of risk sharing was introduced and the weight was assigned by the AHP GEM method to coordinate the risk of PPP model of water diversion project. Based on the fuzzy function of the risk loss, the initial risk sharing was carried out with the interval fuzzy Shapley value method. Finally, the risk sharing of initial risk was modified by risk sharing factor, and the risk sharing algorithm was proposed. Case study shows that the adjusted risk sharing scheme overcomes the limited estimation of risk level and volatility of risk loss effectively, balances the actual risk bearing ability of the participators, and it is more consistent with the actual situation.
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