瞿宁玲1,王安琪1,陈元芳1,顾圣华2.米市渡站最低潮位的非一致性频率分析[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(10):34-38
米市渡站最低潮位的非一致性频率分析
Inconsistent Frequency Analysis of Annual Minimum Tide Level in Mishidu Station
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  趋势检验  混合分布  设计低潮位  米市渡站  频率计算
英文关键词:trend test  mixed distribution  design low tide level  Mishidu Station  frequency calculation
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51479061);上海市科委项目(17DZ1204802)
作者单位
瞿宁玲1,王安琪1,陈元芳1,顾圣华2 1. 河海大学 水文水资源学院 江苏 南京 210098 2. 上海水文总站 上海 200232 
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中文摘要:
      基于Lee Heghinian法、有序聚类检验等5种突变检验方法和线性趋势相关系数法、Spearman秩次相关检验和Kendall秩次相关检验3种趋势检验方法对黄浦江上游米市渡站47年(1969~2015年)年最低潮位序列进行变异诊断,运用水文序列分解合成方法对序列进行去趋势处理,在混合分布思想的基础上利用模拟退火法对处理后新序列进行频率分析,并对比修正前后序列不同重现期潮位设计值。结果表明,米市渡站年最低潮位不仅有显著的抬升趋势,还在1999年发生突变。相比于不考虑变异情况的潮位设计值,考虑变异情况的混合分布频率曲线和经验点据的拟合更优,且相同频率下的潮位设计值均小于前者,从而为黄浦江沿岸水利工程设计和运行管理提供了参考。
英文摘要:
      Lee Heghinian method, ordered clustering test and other five kinds of mutation test methods and linear trend correlation coefficient method, Spearman rank correlation test and Kendall rank correlation three kinds of trend test methods were used to diagnose annual minimum tide level sequences of Mishidu Station located in the upstream of Huangpu River during 1969 2015 (47 years). The hydrological sequence decomposition synthesis method was applied to deal with the trend of the sequence. Based on the idea of mixed distribution, simulated annealing method was adopted to deal with the new sequence after the frequency analysis. Different tidal level design values before and after the correction sequence were compared. The results show that there is significantly rising trends for Mishidu Station, and the most abrupt changes in annual minimum tidal level occurred mostly around 1999. Compared with the design value of tide level without considering the variation, the fitting frequency curve and empirical point data under the variation condition are considered to be better. The tidal level design values at the same frequency are less than the former, which provides reliable reference for the wading engineering design and operation management of Huangpu River.
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