崔〓杨1,2,成〓驰1,2,陈正洪1,2.考虑大气透明度修正的光伏发电超短期功率预测方法[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(9):201-204
考虑大气透明度修正的光伏发电超短期功率预测方法
Ultra Short term PV Power Forecasting Method Based on Atmospheric Transparency Correction
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  光伏发电  功率预测  超短期  别尔梁德模型  辐射订正
英文关键词:PV power generation  power forecasting  ultra short term  Berlyand model  radiation correction
基金项目:湖北省气象局重点科技基金项目(2016Z06);湖北省气象局青年科技基金项目(2018Q09)
作者单位
崔〓杨1,2,成〓驰1,2,陈正洪1,2 1. 湖北省气象服务中心 湖北 武汉 430205 2. 湖北省气象能源技术开发中心 湖北 武汉 430205 
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中文摘要:
      为提高光伏发电功率超短期预测准确率,考虑到大气透明度能反映到达地面的太阳辐射量,建立了基于别尔梁德模型的超短期太阳辐射订正模型,分别对未来15 min、1 h及4 h的预报总辐射进行实时订正,并采用光电转换效率模型及直流交流电转换模型完成了最终超短期功率预测结果的输出。结果表明,该方法能有效提高超短期功率预测准确率,第15 min、1 h及4 h的相对均方根误差最多可分别减小4.27%、6.01%和6.12%。
英文摘要:
      In order to improve the ultra short term prediction accuracy of PV power generation, considering the atmospheric transparency which affects solar radiation reaching the ground, an ultra short term solar radiation correction model was established based on Berlyand model. And the total radiation predictions for the next 15 minutes, 1 hour and 4 hours were corrected. Then the photoelectric conversion efficiency model and the DC/AC conversion model were used to forecast the ultra short term PV power. The results show that this method can improve the accuracy of ultra short term PV power prediction effectively, and the RMSE for the next 15 minutes,1 hour and 4 hours ahead can be reduced by 4.27%, 6.01% and 6.12%, respectively.
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