刘梦洋,尹义星,韩〓翠,黄伊涵.基于地区线性矩法的江西省极值降水频率分析[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(9):1-4
基于地区线性矩法的江西省极值降水频率分析
Frequency Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Jiangxi Province Based on Regional L Moments Method
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  极值降水  地区线性矩法  频率分析  江西省
英文关键词:extreme precipitation  regional L moments  frequency analysis  Jiangxi Province
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(41671022);江苏省普通高校自然科学研究资助项目(15KJB170014)
作者单位
刘梦洋,尹义星,韩〓翠,黄伊涵 南京信息工程大学 水文气象学院 江苏 南京 210044 
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中文摘要:
      基于1960~2008年江西省77个站点的逐日降水数据,采用地区线性矩法研究了该省极值降水频率及时空特征,包括数据的统计检验、水文气象一致区划分、最优分布线型确定、频率估计值计算、单站分析和地区分析法比较、设计值空间分布特征分析等。结果表明,皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布(PE3)和广义正态分布(GNO)是大多数一致区的最优分布;地区分析法获得的频率估计值相较于单站分析法具有很好的稳健性;不同时间段极值降水的空间分布,东北部大于西南部,大值区多位于丘陵山地,小值区多位于平原地区。
英文摘要:
      Hydrological frequency characteristics of extreme precipitation in Jiangxi Province were investigated by using the daily precipitation data of 77 stations from 1960 to 2008 with the method of Regional L Moments. The study involved extensive data screening, identification of homogeneous regions, goodness of fit test, quantile estimation for each region, comparison between at site and regional estimation, mapping of the spatial patterns of extreme precipitation. The results show that the distributions of Pearson type Ⅲ (PE3) and the generalized normal (GNO) are identified as the best fitted distributions for most of the homogeneous regions; Estimated quantiles obtained by regional method are more robust and accurate than those obtained by at site method. The spatial distribution of the extreme precipitation in different times indicates that the estimated quantiles in the northeast part is higher than those in the southwest part and most of the areas with large (small) quantiles are located in the hilly and mountainous (plain) area.
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