兰〓平a,林炳章b,陈晓旸c,林智琛c.基于改进的统计估算法与暴雨移置法的香港地区4 h可能最大降水估算[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(9):6-5
基于改进的统计估算法与暴雨移置法的香港地区4 h可能最大降水估算
Estimating 4 h PMP in Hong Kong by the Improved Statistical Method and Storm Transposition
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  可能最大降水  改进的统计估算法  暴雨移置  分时段地形增强因子法  辐合雨分量
英文关键词:probable maximum precipitation  improved statistical method  storm transposition  step duration orographic intensification factor method  convergence component
基金项目:香港特区政府土木工程拓展署(CEDD)研究项目(GCST 2/D9/RA 63);2013年江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXLX13_485);全国山洪灾害防治项目(SHZH IWHR 72)
作者单位
兰〓平a,林炳章b,陈晓旸c,林智琛c 南京信息工程大学 a. 大气科学学院 b. 应用水文气象研究院 c. 应用气象学院 江苏 南京 210044 
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中文摘要:
      基于香港地区74站、台湾地区66站和深圳站的雨量资料及4个典型台风暴雨发生期间逐时雨量资料,首先利用改进的统计估算法估算其4 h可能最大降水,然后采用分时段地形增强因子法对4个台〖JP2〗风暴雨进行分割,去除地形雨分量,最后将概化的辐合雨分量移置到香港地区,与〖JP〗其4 h地形增强因子相结合,估算出香港地区4 h可能最大降水。结果表明,改进的统计估算法和暴雨移置法估算得到香港地区4 h可能最大降水分别为558.5、516.7 mm,均高于香港地区4 h暴雨纪录。经分析比较,估算结果均比较合理、可靠。
英文摘要:
      The historical rainfall data of 74 stations in Hong Kong, 66 stations in Taiwan and Shenzhen, and hourly data of rain gauge stations in Taiwan during the period of four representative storms are analyzed. First, an improved statistical method was adopted to estimate the 4 h probable maximum precipitation (PMP). Secondly, the step duration orographic intensification factor (SDOIF) method was used to separate the four storms to remove the orographic component. and the convergence component to develop a generalized pattern of the convergence component in Taiwan. Then, the generalized convergence component pattern was transposed to Hong Kong Region. Combining with the 4 h orographic intensification factors, the 4 h PMP in Hong Kong Region was estimated. The results show that the 4 h PMP in Hong Kong Region obtained by the improved statistical method and storm transposition are about 558.5 mm and 516.7 mm, respectively, which are higher than the 4 h storm record in Hong Kong. Comparative analysis verified the rationality of two methods for calculation of the PMP.
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