邹〓浩1a,1b,胡国华1a,1b,邵全喜1a,2,顾庆福3,周〓慧3.气候变化与人类活动对湘江流域径流变化的影响分析[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(9):34-33
气候变化与人类活动对湘江流域径流变化的影响分析
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff Variation in the Xiangjiang River Basin
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  气候变化  人类活动  径流  湘江流域
英文关键词:climate change  human activities  runoff  Xiangjiang River Basin
基金项目:湖南省重大水利科技计划项目(2013 243 2)
作者单位
邹〓浩1a,1b,胡国华1a,1b,邵全喜1a,2,顾庆福3,周〓慧3 1. 长沙理工大学 a. 水利工程学院 b. 水沙科学与水灾害防治湖南省重点实验室 湖南 长沙 4101142. 澳大利亚国家数据研究所 澳大利亚 佛意特 WA6014 3. 湖南水文水资源勘测局 湖南 长沙 410007 
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中文摘要:
      为进一步了解气候变化与人类活动对湘江流域径流变化的影响,将湘江流域划分为上游、中游、下游三个汇流区间,采用Mann Kendall非参数检验法和累积距平法等数理统计法揭示了湘江流域上游、中游、下游径流与气象因素在1961~2013年之间的演变规律,利用弹性系数法定量分析了气候变化与人类活动对湘江流域径流量变化的影响。结果表明,湘江流域径流与降水变化趋势不明显,潜在蒸散发呈下降趋势,径流变化具有较明显的阶段性;湘江流域气候变化与人类活动均起着增加径流的作用,人类活动对上游与中游的影响较大,下游则是以气候变化的影响为主。
英文摘要:
      In order to obtain the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff variation, the Xiangjiang river basin was divided into three confluence areas: upper reaches, middle reaches and lower reaches. The methods of mathematical statistics including Mann Kendall test and cumulative anomaly curve were used to analyze the evolution of runoff and meteorological factors in the upper reaches, middle reaches and lower reaches of Xiangjiang river basin during 1961 2013 years. The elasticity coefficient method was used to quantitatively analyze the influence of climate change and human activities on the runoff variation of Xiangjiang River Basin. The results show that the trend of runoff and precipitation in Xiangjiang River Basin is not obvious, the potential evapotranspiration is decreasing, and runoff change has obviously staggered feature. Climate change and human activities play a role in increasing runoff in Xiangjiang basin. Human activities have a greater impact on the upper reaches and middle reaches, while the lower reaches is mainly affected by the climate change.
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