张园园1,肖〓恒2,俞〓淞1,王红瑞1.基于可变模糊评价模型的长江上游气象干旱评价[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(9):14-13
基于可变模糊评价模型的长江上游气象干旱评价
Comprehensive Assessment of Meteorological Drought Based on the Variable Fuzzy Evaluation Model in the Upper Reaches of Yangtze River Basin
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  气象干旱指标  可变模糊评价模型  小波分析  长江上游流域
英文关键词:drought index  variable fuzzy evaluation model  wavelet analysis method  upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin
基金项目:国家自然科学基金项目(51279006,51479003)
作者单位
张园园1,肖〓恒2,俞〓淞1,王红瑞1 1. 北京师范大学 水科学研究院 北京 100875 2. 华北水利水电大学 黄河科学研究院 河南 郑州 450045 
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中文摘要:
      为全面评价长江上游流域的气象干旱状况,利用该流域1953~2012年的气温、降水资料,选取标准化降水指数(SPI)、连续无雨日(CDD)、相对湿润度指数(M)3种气象干旱指标,建立可变模糊数学模型,并应用Mann Kendall检验法和小波分析方法分析了该流域长期气象干旱的时空变化特征。结果表明,流域气象干旱程度总体呈加重趋势;季节上冬、春连旱较为严重,秋旱有显著加重趋势,预计今后出现秋、冬、春连旱的可能性大;气象干旱存在20年左右的长周期以及6~8年左右的短周期;年际及季节空间分布规律均为自东向西逐渐加重。研究成果可为深入认识区域长期气象干旱演变特征提供参考,对西南等地区的抗旱减灾工作具有重要意义。
英文摘要:
      In order to comprehensively evaluate the meteorological drought in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, based on the temperature and precipitation data from 1953 to 2012, a variable fuzzy model was established by choosing three drought indices including Standardized Precipitation Index, Consecutive Rainless Days and Relative Humidity Index. Moreover, the characteristics of spatial temporal variation in the study region were analyzed by Mann Kendall and wavelet analysis methods. The results show that the meteorological drought in this basin becomes more severe; The drought intensity in winter and spring was more severe, and the drying trend was more obvious in autumn; It was predicted that the drought from winter to spring was especially likely to happen. The annual change of the meteorological drought show 20 years long cycle and 6 8 years short cycle; The annual and seasonal spatial distribution patterns were both characterized as a gradually increasing trend from east to west. Therefore, the research findings can provide a more comprehensive drought evaluation system and play an important role in making drought resistance strategy in southwest China and other regions.
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