陈〓瑞1,黄建文2.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的工程项目进度完工概率分析[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(6):167-170
基于模糊贝叶斯网络的工程项目进度完工概率分析
Analysis of Completion Probability of Project Schedule Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network
  
DOI:
中文关键词:  模糊集  进度贝叶斯网络  模糊完工概率  进度风险
英文关键词:fuzzy sets  Schedule Bayesian Network(SBN)  fuzzy completion probability  schedule risk
基金项目:湖北省自然科学基金项目(2014CFB670);湖北省建设科技计划项目(KJ2016QT012)
作者单位
陈〓瑞1,黄建文2 1. 三峡大学科技学院 土木水电学部, 湖北 宜昌 443000; 2. 三峡大学 水利与环境学院, 湖北 宜昌 443000 
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中文摘要:
      随着建设工程复杂程度的提升,工程建设风险越来越大,进度风险对工程效益的影响越来越明显。为了给工程项目的决策者提供进度风险决策依据,提出基于模糊贝叶斯网络的工程项目进度完工概率分析模型。先根据专家的模糊语言描述及积分值法确定根节点的概率和各父节点的条件概率,然后将其运用到贝叶斯网络推理计算网络计划完工概率,最后将该模型应用于实例中,并运用NETICA对网络计划进行推理分析,从而验证了模型的可行性和有效性。
英文摘要:
      With the improvement of the complexity of construction project, the risk of construction project is becoming more and more serious, and the impact of schedule risk on the project benefit is increasing obvious. This paper presented an model to analyze the completion probability of construction project based on the Fuzzy Bayesian Network. First of all, the fuzzy description of the experts and the integral value method were used to determine the probability of the root node and the conditional probability of each parent node. And then Bayesian Network inference was adopted to calculate the completion probability of the network. Finally, this model was applied to case study, and NETICA was used to analyze the network planning, thus verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model was verified.
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